Climatic dynamics of sea ice distribution in the Arctic
|Lead Author||Aleksei, Bukatov|
|Institution Contact||Marine Hydrophysical Institute RAS Каpitanskaya Str., 2, 299011, Sevastopol, Russian Federation|
|Co-Authors||Anton Bukatov, Marine Hydrophysical Institute RAS, Russian Margarita Babiy, Marine Hydrophysical Institute RAS, Russian|
|Theme||Theme 1: Vulnerability of Arctic Environments|
|Session Name||1.1 Climate Change and Environmental Management in the Arctic|
|Abstract text||Research of intraannual climatic variability of regional sea ice concentration distribution from 1969 to 2012 are carried out. The analysis of dynamics of monthly average climatic ice edge location is made on every longitude along its perimeter. The estimation of edge displacement velocity in latitudinal direction is given. Longitudinal sectors with the maximum and minimum intensity of edge dynamics are defined. Considerable dynamics of edge location in an intraannual cycle is observed in longitudinal sector from 20E to 55E and in the Bering strait.
On annual average values of edge location latitude for every longitude degree the value of its linear trend is counted. For the majority of regions the trend is positive. The most significant the positive trend value is found in Greenland, Barents and Chukchi seas and Bering strait. Regions with negative trend are noted. It is observed at Taimyr and in the east of Kara sea. Also there are regions such as Laptev and East–Siberian seas, where on the one sections along edge perimeter its trend negative, and on the others it is positive.
Most essential on spectral density time cycles deviation of monthly average values of edge location latitude from its linear trend are revealed. The main signal in a spectrum is the oscillations with one cycle in a year. Oscillations with the maximum spectral density are in Barents sea. Also at spectrum of oscillations there are modes with two, three and four cycles in a year. They are weaker annual and manifested only in separate longitudinal sectors. In some regions the low-frequency oscillations with the period from 2 and more years are observed.
The analysis of the cross-correlation functions connecting edge latitudinal displacement and Wolf numbers of solar activity with take into account and without trend of edge position is made.