Assessment of Atmospheric Circulation in the Atlantic-Eurasian Region and Arctic Using Climate Indices. The Possible Applications of these Indices in Long-term Weather Forecasts.

Lead Author Mikhail, Latonin
Institution Contact Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Saint-Petersburg, Russian Federation
Co-Authors Oleg Pokrovsky, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Russian Federation
Theme Theme 1: Vulnerability of Arctic Environments
Session Name 1.1 Climate Change and Environmental Management in the Arctic
Datetime Wed, Sep 14, 2016 01:40 PM - 02:00 PM
Presentation Type Oral
Abstract text Ocean-atmosphere interaction is a very important chain when considering the elements of general circulation of the atmosphere, which essentially defines the everyday weather that we experience.

In the first part of this research an overview of the two key climate indices is provided that significantly characterize the weather in the Atlantic-Eurasian region. Namely, the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices were considered.

The second part is devoted to the polar air outbreaks from the Arctic. It was founded out that North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices are not sensitive to the two completely different types of polar air outbreaks. The classification of polar air outbreaks was carried out. Based on this classification a conclusion about the presence of North Siberian anomaly that, according to many features, can be treated as the one more action center of the atmosphere, was made. This has allowed to introduce a new climate index that was named Atlantic Arctic Oscillation index. This index characterizes the two types of polar air outbreaks with the high accuracy.

A connection between the new climate index and temperatures in the regions that are investigated, was analysed. Summer season in middle latitudes is becoming colder while winter season in the Arctic is becoming warmer, and Atlantic Arctic Oscillation index shows it.

One of the most important reasons of the diminishing Arctic sea ice is related to the domination for already 20 years of the second type of polar air outbreaks that cause high positive temperature anomalies in Eastern sector of the Arctic.
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