Impact assessment of current climate changes on the Ob River runoff to plan a rational water management in the Arctic region

Lead Author Elena, Shestakova
Institution Contact Russian State Hydrometeorological University, 98 Malookhtinsky prospect, St. Petersburg, Russia, 195196
Theme Theme 1: Vulnerability of Arctic Environments
Session Name 1.2 Fresh Water in the Arctic Climate System: Consequences of Global Climate Change and Future Projections of the Arctic Environment
Datetime Thu, Sep 15, 2016 01:15 PM - 01:30 PM
Presentation Type Oral
Abstract text There are a lot of lower reaches and river mouths of North American and Eurasian rivers in the Arctic. The implementation of major projects for the extraction of hydrocarbons in the Arctic, the development of agricultural industry, as well as increased activity in the domestic sphere are in need of timely assessments of long-term variability of water resources. Their quality and quantity is subject to significant fluctuations due both irrational use and natural causes, primarily because of climate fluctuations.
In this paper, comparison of river runoff and climate variability is made on the example of the Ob River basin. As a result of this work, there are the following conclusions:
1. Observations of the average annual temperature and precipitation in the drainage basin under study indicate that the significant trends in the variability of these characteristics cannot be reliably established.
2. Despite the global warming and the projected increase of fresh water resources amount according to the atmosphere and the ocean general circulation model (ECHAM4 / OPYC3, HadCM3, and others.), there are observed succession of dry and humid phases caused by natural fluctuations.
3. It is not possible to establish the unidirectional changes of an annual discharge of Ob River throughout the basin. Statistically significant trends were found only for the runoff in the forest-steppe zone.
4. Increased runoff in the upper reaches has not significant impact on the annual discharge of the river, due to the large scale of the basin.
5. Identified temperature and precipitation trends are not significant, so it is possible, that there will be changes the directions of climate processes in the future, associated with changes in the macro-circulation processes.
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