Education attainment and population development in the Arctic
|Lead Author||Anastasia, Emelyanova|
|Institution Contact||International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, World Population Program, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria|
|Theme||Theme 4: Building Long-term Human Capacity|
|Session Name||4.4 Circumpolar Health and Well-Being|
|Datetime||Wed, Sep 14, 2016 01:00 PM - 01:15 PM|
|Abstract text||The group of researchers under the leadership of Prof. Wolfgang Lutz (IIASA, Austria) has recently made a pronounced contribution to demographic methodology, creating the theoretical, methodological, and empirical basis for adding educational attainment to age and sex as an additional equally important dimension in analysis of population dynamics. This pioneering work on human capital resulted in the book “World Population and Human Capital in the 21st Century” (2014).
Similarly, wellbeing of Arctic populations and multiply aspects of regional sustainability directly depend on human capital and population achievements in education that is advocated in the new Arctic Human Development Report (2014). It states that education tremendously drives all demographic processes e.g. preferences of educated males to return to their communities while highly educated females move permanently away to cities and from Arctic regions (largely from the Danish North), migration of youth to pursue education in large urban centers, healthier behaviors, drop of fertility with regard to education, that all reshape the capacities to respond to various regional challenges.
Meanwhile, planning for many public policy sectors cannot take advantage of meaningful projections of population change at the level of Arctic sub-regions. Population projections at this territorial level are often not available in a long time series, vary widely between existing attempts, and rarely explain the socioeconomic reasons behind demographic changes. In this study, population dynamics will be projected for more than 25 Arctic sub-regions in comparison to all-nation changes of 8 Arctic countries. We will frame scenarios of population change among northern residents with the levels of their future education, throughout levels of schooling to the tertiary degree completion.
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