Probabilistic forecast of multi-year runoff under the climate change for long-term developing planning in the Arctic.

Lead Author Elena, Shevnina
Institution Contact Finnish Meteorological Institute P.O. Box 503 FI-00101 Helsinki Finland
Co-Authors Ekaterina Gaidukova, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St. Petersburg, Russia
Theme Theme 1: Vulnerability of Arctic Environments
Session Name 1.1 Climate Change and Environmental Management in the Arctic
Datetime Wed, Sep 14, 2016 01:00 PM - 01:20 PM
Presentation Type Oral
Abstract text Climate warming has been and is expected to continue faster in the Arctic than at lower latitudes, which generates major challenges for adaptation. Among others, long-term planning of development of socio-economic infrastructure requires climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental runoff events. To estimate the cost of facilities and operational risks, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable.
To evaluate the long-term forecast of the detrimental hydrological events and probability density function of multi-year runoff the stochastic hydrological model is adapted to the high-spatial regional climate projections. The outputs from the regional climate model by the Rossby Centre Atmosphere for RCP climate scenarios are used to perform the regional scale assessment of the detrimental hydrological events for the Arctic. Anomalies in the regime characteristics of the annual and maximal multi-year runoff are revealed, and the warming regions, where the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events are expected to change substantially are outlined for the Russian Arctic. The simple estimates of the potential economic value for the hydro-power generation and mining economical sectors are provided using “cost-lost” model.
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