Marine heatwaves—periods of abnormally high sea surface temperatures—are becoming more frequent, intense, and prolonged due to climate change. While their impacts on ecosystems and global climate are increasingly recognized, their specific influence on Arctic sea ice remains underexplored. This project addresses that gap by developing a cutting-edge modelling framework to understand how these extreme events affect sea ice thickness, extent, and seasonal behavior—factors critical to safe maritime operations in the Arctic.

As sea temperatures rise, marine heatwaves can delay ice formation, accelerate melting, and increase glacier calving, all of which pose significant risks to navigation. Thinner, less predictable ice reduces the reliability of traditional route planning and increases the danger for vessels operating in polar regions. At the same time, shifting ice patterns may open new shipping lanes earlier and for longer periods—raising complex challenges for logistics, safety, and regional policy.

To respond to these changes, the project will harness artificial intelligence techniques trained on comprehensive datasets, including satellite observations, oceanographic surveys, and climate reanalysis. This approach allows for the identification of complex, non-linear interactions between environmental factors, significantly improving the accuracy of sea ice forecasts.

By building more reliable forecasting tools and deepening our understanding of marine heatwave impacts, this research aims to strengthen the resilience of Arctic navigation and contribute valuable insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and local communities navigating a rapidly changing Arctic environment.